Climate change is already having widespread impacts on the environment, the economy and on key sectors across Europe and the rest of the world. Even if all greenhouse gas emissions were stopped today, Europe’s climate would still continue to change for decades to come.

Adaptation refers to efforts that prepare vulnerable regions for the unavoidable impacts of climate change. It is now necessary to increase the adaptive capacity of communities to deal with these major changes already underway. Strong early action to reduce emissions can help limit the rate and overall level of climate change experienced.

What impacts can we expect from climate change?

Climate change will significantly affect water availability, agriculture, forests, ecosystems, coasts and human health in Europe. Let’s explore the major consequences:

Water Availability

Climate change is projected to reduce water availability in many water-stressed countries across southern Europe. This will have major impacts for agriculture and food production, energy, industry, and domestic use.

Increased water shortages will affect at least 11% more of Europe’s population by the 2070s. The number of people affected will steeply rise to 35% by the 2070s across southern Europe.

Agriculture and Food Production

Agriculture accounts for roughly 30% of the EU’s land area and remains crucial for Europe’s society. It is intimately linked with climate and will be significantly impacted.

Climate change is projected to have mixed effects:

• Some northern areas may benefit with increased crop yields
• Southern regions will suffer reduced water for irrigation and extreme heat stress lowering yields

This may force a shift in production areas for some crops affecting farmers and global food supply chains.

Coasts and Oceans

Rising sea levels, coastal floods and erosion already pose threats to many coastal regions and islands across Europe due to climate change.

Sea levels could rise over 1 meter by 2100 making these hazards even worse. Low lying cities like Venice with over 3 feet of sea level rise so far are already frequently flooding causing major disruptions.

Marine ecosystems and fish stocks are also being impacted by ocean warming and acidification. Cold water species like cod are migrating northward while new species take their place disrupting fishing economies.

Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Europe’s plant and animal species have already shifted their distribution to higher altitudes and latitudes in response to recent warming.

A large fraction of species may face increased extinction risk under projected future climate change scenarios. There are risks of dominating invasive alien species which can disrupt delicate ecosystems.

Forests cover over 40% of the EU’s land area and provide crucial economic resources including timber. Climate change brings increased risks from forest pests, pathogens and fires.

Drought conditions make forests more susceptible to pests and fires. This was seen during summer 2022 as wildfires burned over 850,000 acres of land across Europe.

Health Threats

Warmer temperatures allow the habitats for southern disease vectors like mosquitoes and ticks to expand northward bringing increased risks from diseases like malaria, dengue fever, Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis.

Heat waves are the most direct health risk causing premature deaths especially for vulnerable groups like older people or those with preexisting medical conditions. The infamous 2003 summer heat wave caused over 70,000 excess deaths across Europe.

People and the Economy

The European economy and infrastructure has developed within the stable climatic conditions of the last centuries. Any deviations from these norms can cause major disruptions and economic impacts.

Just looking at past extreme climate events shows vulnerability. The 2013/2014 winter floods in south and east England caused $2 billion in insured losses. The 2017 drought and wildfires in Portugal accounted for $5 billion in destruction.

Adaptation Efforts

Climate change adaptation refers to dealing with the unavoidable changes already occurring and expected in the coming decades. The goal is to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience to the impacts.

The EU Adaptation Strategy focuses on 3 key areas:

1. Promoting action by member states
2. Better informed decision-making
3. Climate-proofing action across all related EU policies

Some examples of adaptation measures already being implemented include:

• Flood defenses – Building dikes, levees and better drainage around vulnerable areas
• Heat warning systems – Alerts to warn vulnerable groups during extreme heat events
• New building codes – Designs more resilient to future climate conditions
• Ecosystem management – Assisted migration for vulnerable species, controlling invasive species
• Water conservation – Improved irrigation systems, fixing leaks, community engagement
• Crops and livelihoods insurance – Financial tools to help farmers and industries manage losses from climate change

The Way Forward

The above covers some of the major consequences from climate change already underway across Europe’s environment, economy and society. The impacts are only expected to intensify in the coming years.

However, we still retain control over how bad it ultimately gets. The lower the greenhouse gas emissions in the near future, the more manageable the long term changes will be.

Strong mitigation and adaptation efforts implemented now can still avoid some of the most severe projected future risks to water supplies, food production, health and economic stability. But action must be immediate and sustained.

The next decade is crucial for getting on track to safer climate scenarios. Engaging all levels of government and society to contribute is key. The technologies and policy tools are already available – it is a matter of political and public will to put them into action.