CS Kagwe Warns of Rice Shortage and Price Surge if Import Ban Upheld

In Summary

• Agriculture CS Mutahi Kagwe warns of rice shortage and price hikes if court upholds ban on 500,000 MT duty-free rice imports.
• Kenya’s annual rice demand is 1.3 million MT, with local production meeting only 20% (260,000 MT).
• Current rice prices at KSh 190–220/kg, up from KSh 150/kg last year; could rise further.
• KNTC has contracts to buy local stocks, but only 20,000 bags available vs. 350,000 needed.
• High Court hearing set for August 15, 2025, to decide on lifting conservatory order.
• Farmers argue local stocks suffice; imports threaten livelihoods.

Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has warned that Kenya faces a potential rice shortage and soaring prices if the High Court upholds a petition blocking the duty-free importation of 500,000 metric tonnes of Grade 1 milled white rice, as stated in an affidavit filed in Kerugoya.

The court, following a Farmers Party petition, issued a conservatory order on August 11, 2025, halting the import plan outlined in Gazette Notice No. 10353 of July 28, 2025. A hearing to determine whether to lift the order is scheduled for August 15, 2025, at 2:30 PM.

Kagwe highlighted that Kenya’s annual rice demand is approximately 1.3 million MT, with local production, mainly from Mwea, covering only 20% (260,000 MT), leaving a deficit of 1 million MT met through imports. With per capita consumption projected at 29 kg in 2025 and a population of 54.79 million, demand could reach 1.5 million MT, requiring 125,000 MT monthly.

Between July and December 2025, Kenya needs 625,000 MT. Retail prices for Grade 1 rice have already risen to KSh 190–220 per kg from KSh 150 during last year’s duty-free period, and Kagwe cautioned that blocking imports could exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis.

The Kenya National Trading Corporation (KNTC) has contracts with Mwea Rice Growers Cooperative to purchase local stocks, but available stocks are only 20,000 (50kg) bags against a demand of over 350,000 bags for institutions like the Ministry of Education (130,000 bags), Correctional Services (60,000 bags), and Kenya Defence Forces (40,000 bags).

Kagwe argued that duty-free imports are essential to stabilize supply and prices.

Farmers, however, contend that local stocks from recent harvests are sufficient, and imports could depress prices, hurting livelihoods.

The Farmers Party’s petition claims the import decision lacks public participation and violates constitutional and trade regulations.

The court’s decision on August 15 will determine whether imports proceed or local production is prioritized, impacting Kenya’s rice market and food security efforts.