Kenya Targets India to Diversify Macadamia Exports and Reduce Overreliance on Traditional Markets

Kenya is intensifying efforts to expand macadamia exports to India. The move aims to lessen dependence on a handful of traditional buyers and stabilize revenues for farmers and processors.

The Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) disclosed the strategy recently. It follows concerns over market volatility in established destinations.

AFA Develops Targeted Strategy for Indian Market

AFA plans deeper penetration into India through a dedicated approach. This includes Business-to-Business (B2B) and Business-to-Consumer (B2C) activities.

The regulator has recruited a consultant to guide the expansion. In-depth research on India’s macadamia market will shape the plan.

AFA highlighted the risks of overreliance. Traditional markets—the US, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, and China—handle about 75% of Kenya’s export volume.

In 2024, over 70% of exported kernels and nuts-in-shell went to these five countries. Fluctuations there expose the sector to price swings and demand shifts.

Overreliance Leaves Sector Vulnerable

Kenya ranks as the world’s third-largest macadamia producer. It supplies nearly 20% of global demand.

The industry relies heavily on exports. About 95% of production ships abroad, mainly as kernels for snacks, confectionery, and ingredients.

Production grew to around 49,000 metric tonnes in 2024. Projections for 2025 show a slight dip due to seasonal restrictions, but long-term growth continues.

Farm-gate prices rose sharply in recent years. Competition among buyers lifted values, benefiting smallholders who form the bulk of producers.

Yet, concentration in few markets creates fragility. AFA seeks to counter this by tapping high-potential non-traditional outlets like India.

India Offers Strong Growth Potential

India shows significant untapped demand for macadamia nuts. Earlier analyses identified it as a top market with export gaps for Kenyan produce.

Growing middle-class consumption drives interest in premium nuts. Macadamia fits well in snacks, confectionery, and health-focused foods.

Kenya’s nuts enjoy a reputation for quality when properly processed. Expansion could build on existing bilateral trade ties.

Challenges include tariffs and market-specific standards. The strategy addresses these through targeted promotion and compliance support.

Support for Farmers and Processors

Over 200,000 smallholder farmers depend on macadamia for income. Diversification promises steadier prices and better bargaining power.

Processors gain from wider outlets. This reduces pressure during gluts or when key markets slow.

Recent measures like seasonal harvesting closures aim to maintain quality. Bans from December 2025 to early February 2026 (lifted ahead of schedule) protected kernel standards for premium markets.

Broader Context in Nuts Sector

Macadamia ranks among Kenya’s top cash crops after tea. It supports rural jobs and foreign exchange earnings.

Government efforts include seedling distribution. The 2026 Budget Policy Statement targets 120,000 macadamia seedlings alongside other fruits.

KEPROBA and AFA promote value addition. Processed kernels fetch higher returns than raw nuts.

Outlook for Balanced Export Growth

AFA expects the India strategy to roll out soon. It forms part of wider diversification to Asia and other regions.

Success could raise export volumes and stabilize incomes. Farmers watch closely for market access improvements and promotional activities.

The push underscores Kenya’s goal to build resilient agricultural exports. Reducing reliance on a few markets strengthens the sector against global uncertainties.